GPT-5 Could Drop This Week as Signs of AI Slowdown Mount

💡 TL;DR - The 30 Seconds Version

👉 OpenAI releases GPT-5 within days according to company insiders, but CEO Sam Altman admits feeling "scared" about the rapid development.

📊 Internal testing shows GPT-5 delivers modest improvements over GPT-4, marking a much smaller jump than the leap from GPT-3 to GPT-4.

🏭 The model combines reasoning and multimodal capabilities with a 256,000 token context window, double GPT-4's capacity.

💰 Computing costs remain high, with the underlying o3-pro model charging $80 and taking minutes to answer simple questions.

🏁 OpenAI launches GPT-5 due to competitive pressure from Google, Anthropic, and Meta rather than revolutionary breakthroughs.

🚀 This release signals the end of hockey-stick AI improvements and the start of an efficiency-focused era in AI development.

OpenAI will release GPT-5 within days, according to sources inside the company. But don't expect another ChatGPT moment. After months of delays and internal struggles, this flagship model is different: the first major AI release that admits the party might be winding down.

Sam Altman recently tested GPT-5 and walked away feeling "useless compared to the AI." He also compared the experience to working on the Manhattan Project and said he's "scared" about releasing it. When your own CEO sounds like he's having second thoughts, you know something has shifted.

The numbers tell a more sober story than the hype suggests. Internal testing shows GPT-5 makes modest improvements in programming, math, and complex instructions. GPT-4 to GPT-5? It's more like a software update than a revolution. Remember the huge leap from GPT-3 to GPT-4? This isn't that. That plateau everyone predicted? We're there.

The technical reality behind GPT-5

GPT-5 combines OpenAI's reasoning models with its multimodal tools into one system. No more switching between different models for different tasks. Text, images, audio, maybe video—it all happens in one spot now.

GPT-5 remembers twice as much stuff during conversations. The context window doubled from 128,000 to 256,000 tokens. That means longer conversations and better memory across sessions. GPT-5 also uses a mixture-of-experts design that splits computing power more efficiently.

But here's where things get interesting. OpenAI originally built a model called "Orion" to directly succeed GPT-4o. When Orion failed to show the gains they wanted, they released it as GPT-4.5 instead. GPT-4.5 barely registered with users, ran slower than GPT-4o, and cost more. It disappeared quickly.

The scaling wall that nobody wants to discuss

The real story isn't what GPT-5 can do. It's what OpenAI couldn't do to make it better.

Changes that worked for smaller models didn't scale up. The company ran out of high-quality web data to train on. As recently as June 2025, none of OpenAI's models in development were strong enough to be called GPT-5.

This mirrors problems across the industry. Anthropic's Claude 4 made only modest improvements except for coding. Even with hybrid designs that combine large language models with specialized reasoning components, the gains are getting smaller.

The computing costs tell their own story. The o3-pro model that underlies some of GPT-5 charges $80 and takes several minutes to answer "Hi, I'm Sam Altman." That's not efficiency. That's overthinking turned into a business model.

Competition forces OpenAI's hand

Why now? OpenAI has competition breathing down their neck.

Google's Gemini, Anthropic's Claude, and Meta's AI models are closing the gap fast. Anthropic currently leads in coding-related AI, the exact area where OpenAI built its reputation. Microsoft holds a $13.5 billion stake in OpenAI and expects returns.

Behind the scenes, investors are pushing OpenAI to switch from a nonprofit to a for-profit company by year-end. GPT-5 needs to prove the company can still build breakthroughs that justify its $157 billion valuation.

Some reports suggest OpenAI might declare artificial general intelligence prematurely to end its contract with Microsoft. That would trigger new power dynamics in an industry where partnerships are getting more important than pure technical advantages.

The agent future that may not arrive

OpenAI wants GPT-5 to handle entire tasks on its own. Schedule your meetings, book your flights, manage your projects—all without you having to micromanage every step.

OpenAI's Operator tool already does basic web tasks. GPT-5 should expand these tools with better planning and fewer hallucinations. The model figures out which tasks need more computing power and adjusts accordingly.

But the autonomous AI vision faces practical limits. When OpenAI adapted its reasoning models for chat, they lost ability. The chat version had to be "dumbed down" because it wasn't trained enough for real conversation. Balancing specialized reasoning with practical conversation remains unsolved.

What GPT-5 actually gives you

Strip away the marketing and GPT-5 offers three main improvements: unified design that eliminates model switching, better memory for longer conversations, and more efficient resource use.

The multimodal tools work more smoothly. Instead of uploading an image to one model and asking questions to another, everything happens in one interface. The bigger context window means GPT-5 remembers more from previous exchanges.

For coding, GPT-5 should regain ground that OpenAI lost to Anthropic. Early testers report PhD-level performance on reasoning tasks, though that comes with computing costs that make casual use expensive.

The model will launch in three versions: full GPT-5 for complete tasks, GPT-5 mini for quick interactions, and GPT-5 nano for embedded systems. Expect ChatGPT Plus subscribers to get early access while free users wait.

The plateau nobody wants to admit

The dirty secret of GPT-5 is that it proves the transformer design is running out of room to grow. Bill Gates predicted this plateau in fall 2023. Critics like Gary Marcus and former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever have argued that current AI approaches are hitting fundamental limits.

OpenAI increasingly relies on reinforcement learning and a "universal verifier" that rates model responses automatically. This system helped create the model that won gold at the International Mathematical Olympiad. But it's also a sign that simple scaling isn't working anymore.

The company spent massive resources training models that didn't meet internal benchmarks. Multiple sources report that none of OpenAI's models in development as of June 2025 seemed worthy of the GPT-5 name. They're shipping it anyway.

Why this matters:

• GPT-5 marks the end of hockey-stick AI improvements and the start of an era where companies compete on efficiency rather than raw power

• Altman's fear isn't about AI turning evil - it's about humans losing control over systems that advance faster than our ability to understand or regulate them

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

Q: When exactly will GPT-5 be available?

A: Sources inside OpenAI say GPT-5 will launch within days, though no official date is confirmed. OpenAI bumped up their August plans because Google, Anthropic, and Meta keep breathing down their necks.

Q: What will GPT-5 cost?

A: No word on pricing yet. Expect the usual playbook: ChatGPT Plus users ($20/month) get it first, free users wait. The o3-pro tech behind it costs $80 per tough question, so premium features won't be cheap.

Q: What was the "Orion" model and why did it fail?

A: Orion was OpenAI's internal model designed to directly succeed GPT-4o. It didn't deliver the performance gains OpenAI wanted, so they released it as GPT-4.5 instead. GPT-4.5 ran slower, cost more than GPT-4o, and quickly disappeared from use.

Q: Why does Altman compare GPT-5 to the Manhattan Project?

A: Altman draws parallels to scientists who built the atomic bomb but worried about consequences. He says testing GPT-5 feels "very fast" and asks "What have we done?" - suggesting concern that AI advancement outpaces human readiness to control it.

Q: How does GPT-5 compare to competitors like Claude?

A: Anthropic's Claude currently leads in coding tasks, OpenAI's former strength. Claude 4 also delivered only modest improvements overall. GPT-5 aims to regain coding leadership, but all major AI companies are hitting similar scaling limitations with current technology.

Q: Will free ChatGPT users get access to GPT-5?

A: Not initially. GPT-5 will likely follow OpenAI's pattern: ChatGPT Plus, Team, and Enterprise subscribers get early access. Free users typically wait months before accessing new models. The most advanced features may stay premium-only.

Q: Why does the o3-pro model cost $80 for simple questions?

A: The o3-pro model overthinks simple problems, taking several minutes and massive computing resources to answer basic questions like "Hi, I'm Sam Altman." This shows the challenge of balancing specialized reasoning with practical, efficient conversation.

Q: What does OpenAI's nonprofit to for-profit transition mean?

A: Investors are pushing OpenAI to become fully for-profit by year-end to justify its $157 billion valuation. Microsoft holds a $13.5 billion stake and expects returns. Some reports suggest OpenAI might declare AGI prematurely to end its Microsoft contract and gain more control.