Will WWDC 2025 Stop the Bleeding—or Just Delay the Decline?

Apple's worst stock drop in 14 years sets the stage for today's developer conference. The company faces AI criticism, App Store legal battles, and China sales declines while competitors surge ahead.

Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks at WWDC 2025 keynote podium with Apple logo backdrop as company faces stock decline and AI criticism

💡 TL;DR - The 30 Seconds Version

📉 Apple's stock dropped 20% this year, marking its worst performance since 2010 and wiping $600 billion from market value.

🎨 Today's WWDC announces "Liquid Glass UI" design overhaul across iOS 26, macOS 26, and other systems with year-based naming.

🤖 Apple Intelligence improvements remain modest while competitors like Google and Microsoft showcase major AI breakthroughs at their events.

⚖️ Court rulings block Apple from charging fees on external payments, threatening billions in App Store revenue.

📱 iPhone shipments fell 9% in China while Apple makes 90% of products there, creating massive tariff exposure.

🔄 Apple needs this conference to stop the bleeding rather than restore its innovation crown as competitors surpass its market cap.

Apple's annual developer conference starts today with a company under siege. The stock has dropped 20% this year, marking Apple's worst performance since at least 2010. Critics say the company fumbled AI. Regulators circle its App Store business. Developers grow restless.

WWDC 2025 was supposed to be a victory lap. Instead, it feels like damage control.

The problems pile up fast. iPhone shipments in China fell 9% in the March quarter, the only major smartphone maker to post a decline in the region. Apple Intelligence launched to lukewarm reviews. The new Siri still doesn't exist. Apple's slow progress in GenAI and delayed Siri upgrade will be highlighted at WWDC.

Meanwhile, competitors sprint ahead. Google and Microsoft use their developer events to showcase AI breakthroughs. Apple shows concept videos.

The company's own researchers throw shade. They published a paper calling AI reasoning claims "the illusion of thinking." Their tests showed that supposed reasoning models fail basic logic puzzles. It's hard to read this as anything but a shot at the hype machine Apple helped create.

The Reset Strategy

Apple plans a visual makeover to distract from the AI mess. Apple is expected to adopt a unified year-based naming strategy and announce iOS 26, macOS 26, iPadOS 26, watchOS 26, tvOS 26, and visionOS 26.

The bigger change comes through design. Apple is also expected to debut a new visual language for all its systems, referred to as Liquid Glass UI: buttons, tab bars, and other interface elements are set to get new, reflective, glassy materials and textures. Think visionOS but everywhere.

This design shift serves multiple purposes. Fresh looks generate buzz. They also signal change without requiring technical breakthroughs. When you can't ship revolutionary AI, ship revolutionary buttons.

The iPad gets special attention. Longtime iPad users have been waiting for more Mac-like windowing on iPadOS since before Stage Manager, and this may finally be the year. Apple will reportedly announce floating windows, menu bars, and a rethought multitasking system. The Preview app finally arrives on iPad.

Modest AI Moves

Apple can't ignore AI entirely. The company will announce foundation model upgrades and developer access to on-device AI. Apple is also expected to integrate translation in iMessage and FaceTime and introduce a new battery optimization mode.

Swift Assist gets another mention. Apple showed this coding tool last year but never shipped it widely. This time, the company might allow third-party AI integration instead of building everything in-house.

These changes feel incremental. They won't silence critics who say Apple lags years behind Google and OpenAI. But they show the company still tries to compete.

The Developer Problem

Apple's relationship with developers grows tense. Recent court rulings chip away at App Store revenue. Tariffs and legal scrutiny over App Store fees and Google payments threaten Apple's high-margin services business.

A U.S. court blocked Apple from charging fees on external payments. The ruling forces Apple to let developers link to outside payment methods without paying commissions. Other regions watch closely.

Apple needs to rebuild trust. One of the more surprising trends this year? Apple seems serious about gaming again. The company will reportedly announce a new Games app that consolidates Arcade and multiplayer features. visionOS gets PlayStation VR2 controller support.

These moves signal Apple wants developers to build more ambitious apps. The subtext: stick with us despite the fee fights.

Market Pressure Mounts

The stock market tells a brutal story. Apple shares are down more than 16% this year, wiping off over $600 billion from its market value. Nvidia and Microsoft have already passed Apple in market cap. Amazon inches closer.

Tariff threats loom over every product decision. Apple makes 90% of its products in China, creating obvious vulnerability. The company reportedly plans to shift iPhone production to India, but that takes time and money.

Revenue growth flatlines. Apple's revenue is expected to rise 4.2% in the January-March period, roughly matching the pace in the first quarter. Compare that to Amazon's cloud business growing 17% or Nvidia's explosive AI chip sales.

Wall Street analysts grow skeptical. Multiple firms predict other companies will surpass Apple's valuation by year-end. The consensus: Apple trades on past glory while competitors build the future.

The Long Game

Apple's challenges run deeper than one conference can fix. The company spent years building a reputation for breakthrough products. The iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch changed entire industries. Apple Intelligence and Vision Pro don't feel like worthy successors.

The AI gap matters most. Every major tech company bets big on artificial intelligence. Apple's cautious, privacy-first approach slows progress. Apple's cautious, privacy-first approach to AI deployment has slowed its roll-out and left the company playing catch up.

But Apple has recovered from worse situations. The company nearly died in the 1990s before the iPhone revival. Steve Jobs famously said Apple's job was to figure out what customers wanted before they knew it themselves.

Tim Cook's Apple feels different. The company follows trends instead of setting them. It licenses AI technology instead of building breakthrough models. The magic feels missing.

WWDC 2025 won't restore Apple's innovation crown. But it might stop the bleeding. New designs will please existing users. Incremental AI improvements will quiet some critics. Gaming investments might attract new developers.

Success looks different when you're chasing instead of leading.

Why this matters:

  • Apple's reputation for innovation hangs on delivering meaningful AI progress, not just visual redesigns
  • The company's developer relationship faces its biggest test since the App Store launched, with legal and competitive pressures mounting from all sides

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What time does the WWDC keynote start?

A: The keynote begins Monday, June 9 at 10 a.m. Pacific Time (1 p.m. Eastern). You can watch free on Apple.com, YouTube, or the Apple TV app. The Platforms State of the Union follows at 1 p.m. PT.

Q: How much has Apple's stock dropped this year?

A: Apple shares fell 20% in 2025, marking the company's worst performance since at least 2010. The decline wiped over $600 billion from Apple's market value. Nvidia and Microsoft have both passed Apple in market cap.

Q: What is "Liquid Glass UI" that Apple will announce?

A: Apple's new design language makes buttons, tab bars, and interface elements look reflective and glassy, similar to visionOS. It will appear across iOS 26, macOS 26, and other operating systems announced today.

Q: Why is Apple changing from iOS 19 to iOS 26?

A: Apple will adopt year-based naming like automakers use. Since the software launches in fall 2025, it becomes iOS 26. The same applies to macOS 26, iPadOS 26, and other systems.

Q: How bad are Apple's iPhone sales in China?

A: iPhone shipments in China fell 9% in the March quarter. Apple was the only major smartphone maker to post a decline in the region, according to IDC data.

Q: Will Apple announce new hardware at WWDC?

A: Probably not. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman says Apple has no major new devices ready to ship. The only possibility is an AirTag 2, but even that might come via press release later.

Q: What court ruling affects Apple's App Store fees?

A: A U.S. court blocked Apple from charging fees on external payments and must allow developers to link to outside payment methods. Apple can't collect commissions on these transactions, potentially costing billions in revenue.

Q: How much does Apple make from products built in China?

A: Apple makes 90% of its products in China, creating massive tariff exposure. The company reportedly plans to shift iPhone production to India but that process takes years and significant investment.

Q: What new gaming features will Apple announce?

A: Apple will reportedly announce a new Games app that combines Arcade and multiplayer features. visionOS will get PlayStation VR2 controller support, signaling Apple wants developers to build more ambitious games.

Q: How does Apple's revenue growth compare to competitors?

A: Apple's revenue is expected to grow 4.2% this quarter. Compare that to Amazon's cloud business growing 17% or Nvidia's explosive AI chip sales driving triple-digit earnings growth for six straight quarters.

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